Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | GMU -220 ECU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +22 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -18.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -13.5 (+8.5) | 138.1 (+1.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -13.1 (+8.9) | 139.9 (+0.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -12.6 (+9.4) | 140.3 (-0.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -11.2 (+10.8) | 137.3 (+2.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | ECU 78 – 77 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#110) | -7.0 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#66) | -1.88 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#57) | -2.92 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#55) | 0.362 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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