The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–16 on winners spread MAE 9.5 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas City @ Creighton +27.7 145.5 90% 56–79 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Purdue Fort Wayne +15.0 144.4 85% 74–93 ✓
Bellarmine @ Marshall +8.9 148.5 73% 62–83 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mount St. Mary's +8.7 146.7 72% 58–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ Brown +5.3 141.5 73% 73–65 ✗
Siena @ UAlbany +5.9 145.8 76% 60–70 ✓
Hofstra @ Massachusetts +7.7 146.1 75% 75–71 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ VCU +17.1 133.3 85% 57–83 ✓
North Carolina Central @ William & Mary +4.1 145.6 65% 78–76 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Drake +15.7 133.1 86% 61–63 ✓
James Madison @ Towson +4.5 143.2 64% 63–67 ✓
Norfolk State @ Hampton +2.0 133.5 47% 67–58 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Tennessee State — — — 71–81 —
Northern Illinois @ Bradley +11.1 143.6 82% 60–76 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Sacramento State +1.9 130.7 51% 79–69 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Saint Louis +2.1 135.3 62% 71–77 ✓
Omaha @ Southern Utah +5.7 147.6 71% 73–79 ✓
Utah Tech @ Wyoming +8.4 140.4 75% 69–86 ✓
Fresno State @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.2 152.0 56% 56–74 ✓
Seattle U @ UC San Diego +10.5 141.7 69% 84–71 ✗
Santa Clara @ Nevada +17.5 149.7 86% 59–85 ✓
Chicago State @ San Francisco +29.8 149.7 91% 37–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ UC Irvine +24.9 140.1 89% 62–80 ✓
New Mexico @ St. John's +6.4 153.3 70% 71–85 ✓
Georgia Southern @ William & Mary -1.7 157.7 41% 87–102 ✗
Canisius @ Western Michigan +4.4 137.9 62% 69–92 ✓
Stonehill @ Lindenwood -6.5 134.7 30% 74–75 ✗
Campbell @ Navy +5.5 142.7 70% 86–66 ✗
Princeton @ Merrimack +5.3 130.0 64% 68–57 ✗
Nebraska @ Saint Mary's -0.5 141.0 45% 74–77 ✗
Clemson @ Boise State +8.5 145.2 75% 71–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ The Citadel +10.2 139.1 82% 82–73 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Coastal Carolina +7.8 132.1 74% 71–53 ✗
Manhattan @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.8 150.3 41% 82–85 ✓
Coppin State @ Miami +32.3 142.5 91% 63–93 ✓
Harvard @ Colorado +19.7 141.3 88% 66–88 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Winthrop +9.2 143.7 77% 75–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tennessee +20.4 136.7 88% 68–103 ✓
Texas Southern @ Samford +12.7 151.9 85% 82–97 ✓
Chattanooga @ Southeast Missouri State +3.2 139.0 56% 87–82 ✗
Lipscomb @ Western Kentucky +3.9 148.8 70% 61–66 ✓
New Hampshire @ Holy Cross +13.3 145.0 85% 72–74 ✓
Montana State @ Denver +4.0 141.8 71% 78–79 ✓
New Orleans @ Robert Morris +13.4 139.7 88% 62–73 ✓
Utah @ Mississippi State +0.1 151.7 54% 73–78 ✓
Liberty @ Charleston +6.4 149.5 69% 68–47 ✗
UC Davis @ Stanford +16.9 147.9 87% 65–79 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ San José State -13.0 145.0 18% 64–59 ✓
Troy @ Oregon +10.9 140.4 80% 61–82 ✓
Sam Houston @ Lamar +3.7 159.4 63% 85–72 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Brown +6.7 140.5 73% 70–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.