Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ORE -1000 TROY +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -9.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -12.8 (+8.2) | 143.0 (-0.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -10.9 (+10.1) | 140.4 (+2.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -10.1 (+10.9) | 140.0 (+3.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -10.7 (+10.3) | 144.8 (-1.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#80) | 3.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#40) | 1.53 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#42) | 2.24 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#58) | 0.631 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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