Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +180 MTST -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -5.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -2.1 (-1.1) | 141.7 (+15.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -3.6 (-2.6) | 140.8 (+16.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -4.0 (-3.0) | 141.8 (+15.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -2.8 (-1.8) | 140.3 (+16.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2025 | DEN 75 – 73 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#221) | -0.3 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#246) | -0.54 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#245) | -0.68 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#158) | 0.568 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 26.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 11.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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