Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -360 DEN +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -12.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.4 (-6.4) | 144.5 (+3.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -5.9 (-7.9) | 143.8 (+4.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -5.6 (-7.6) | 143.3 (+4.7) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | DEN 79 – 78 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#127) | 4.3 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#214) | -0.65 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#189) | -0.84 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 51.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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