Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Worthington Arena · November 9, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MTST -7.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money MTST -360 / DEN +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total MTST win
Actual DEN +2 148 Lost
Massey MTST -12.3 (-14.3)
Massey Totals 150.9 (-2.9)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 96%
Baseline Tuned ML MTST -4.4 (-6.4) 144.5 (+3.5) 68%
Baseline ML MTST -5.9 (-7.9) 143.8 (+4.2) 72%
Baseline Plus ML MTST -5.6 (-7.6) 143.3 (+4.7) 73%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 17, 2024 DEN 7978 MTST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MTST DEN
Overall 18-14 15-17
Conference 12-6 8-8
Home 11-2 9-5
Away 6-11 6-11
Neutral 0-1 0-1
Last 5 0-1 0-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 75.7 80.3
Avg Pts Against 73.5 84.0
Massey 2.3 (#127) 4.3 (#83)
Bradley-Terry -0.37 (#214) -0.65 (#269)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.46 (#189) -0.84 (#260)
RPI 0.500 (#76) 0.500 (#76)
Shooting & Four Factors MTST DEN
FG% 51.8% 41.0%
3PT% 35.0% 33.3%
REB / G 26.0 34.5
OREB / G 6.0 9.5
AST / TO 0.73 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.0% 47.9%
TOV% 15.9% 20.9%
ORB% 21.4% 26.8%
FT Rate 23.2% 26.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.8% 54.4%
Opp TOV% 13.1% 14.3%
DRB% 64.5% 70.4%
Opp FT Rate 51.9% 26.6%

Game Analysis

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