I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
Memorial Coliseum (IN) · November 17, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread PFW -14.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money PFW -2000 / USI +1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total PFW win
Actual PFW +19 167 Won
Massey PFW -14.3 (+4.7)
Massey Totals 145.2 (+21.8)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML PFW -14.2 (+4.8) 146.8 (+20.2) 84%
Baseline ML PFW -15.0 (+4.0) 144.4 (+22.6) 85%
Baseline Tuned ML PFW -13.3 (+5.7) 142.9 (+24.1) 85%
Efficiency Plus ML PFW -13.4 (+5.6) 145.3 (+21.7) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2023 PFW 7057 USI
Dec 21, 2022 PFW 8359 USI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PFW USI
Overall 19-13 10-20
Conference 12-8 5-15
Home 12-2 8-7
Away 6-10 2-13
Neutral 1-1 0-0
Last 5 1-1 1-3
Streak L3 L2
Avg Pts For 79.4 69.6
Avg Pts Against 76.3 75.1
Massey 6.6 (#68) -0.5 (#182)
Bradley-Terry 0.39 (#150) -1.24 (#286)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.79 (#137) -1.83 (#283)
RPI 0.632 (#64) 0.372 (#294)
Shooting & Four Factors PFW USI
FG% 43.4% 43.6%
3PT% 31.5% 37.7%
REB / G 33.0 35.0
OREB / G 11.0 9.2
AST / TO 0.86 0.57
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 48.7%
TOV% 14.4% 19.6%
ORB% 30.1% 26.8%
FT Rate 23.3% 27.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.7% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 22.6% 17.4%
DRB% 66.7% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 28.9% 33.5%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.