Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -2000 USI +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +19 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -14.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -14.2 (+4.8) | 146.8 (+20.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -15.0 (+4.0) | 144.4 (+22.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -13.3 (+5.7) | 142.9 (+24.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -13.4 (+5.6) | 145.3 (+21.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | PFW 70 – 57 USI |
| Dec 21, 2022 | PFW 83 – 59 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#68) | -0.5 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#150) | -1.24 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#137) | -1.83 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#64) | 0.372 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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