Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
Memorial Coliseum (IN) · December 21, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread PFW -5.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money PFW -225 / USI +220
Model Predictions
Spread Total PFW win
Actual PFW +24 142 Won
Massey PFW -7.2 (+16.8)
Massey Totals 147.0 (-5.0)
Bradley-Terry 83%
Weighted B-T 90%
Baseline Plus ML PFW -7.2 (+16.8) 148.1 (-6.1) 76%
Baseline ML PFW -7.3 (+16.7) 147.7 (-5.7) 76%
Baseline Tuned ML PFW -7.2 (+16.8) 146.8 (-4.8) 76%
Efficiency Plus ML PFW -5.2 (+18.8) 149.6 (-7.6) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 17, 2024 PFW 9374 USI
Dec 7, 2023 PFW 7057 USI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PFW USI
Overall 17-15 16-17
Conference 9-11 9-9
Home 9-6 10-4
Away 7-8 5-11
Neutral 1-1 1-2
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 71.6 75.0
Avg Pts Against 72.1 76.8
Massey 1.4 (#150) -0.9 (#188)
Bradley-Terry 0.70 (#121) 0.01 (#177)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.91 (#117) -0.23 (#191)
RPI 0.506 (#167) 0.509 (#164)
Shooting & Four Factors PFW USI
FG% 40.8% 43.7%
3PT% 30.1% 40.5%
REB / G 37.1 35.7
OREB / G 10.4 10.8
AST / TO 0.88 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.3% 51.8%
TOV% 20.7% 19.5%
ORB% 27.4% 29.0%
FT Rate 18.6% 20.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 52.0%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 19.0%
DRB% 78.8% 74.4%
Opp FT Rate 13.8% 30.3%

Game Analysis

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