Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -225 USI +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +24 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -7.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -7.2 (+16.8) | 148.1 (-6.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -7.3 (+16.7) | 147.7 (-5.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -7.2 (+16.8) | 146.8 (-4.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -5.2 (+18.8) | 149.6 (-7.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | PFW 93 – 74 USI |
| Dec 7, 2023 | PFW 70 – 57 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#150) | -0.9 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#121) | 0.01 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#117) | -0.23 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#167) | 0.509 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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