Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -1200 UCD +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -15.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -17.4 (-3.4) | 147.2 (-3.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -16.9 (-2.9) | 147.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -15.1 (-1.1) | 149.1 (-5.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 17-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#31) | 2.7 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#64) | 0.56 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#60) | 0.67 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#78) | 0.369 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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