Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -37.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +30 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -33.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -33.6 (-3.6) | 147.0 (+9.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -32.3 (-2.3) | 142.5 (+13.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -25.1 (+4.9) | 143.8 (+12.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -26.4 (+3.6) | 143.8 (+12.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 4-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 5-6 |
| Away | 0-10 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 61.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#39) | -15.9 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#116) | -2.50 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#114) | -3.97 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#209) | 0.414 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 58.3% | 33.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 22.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.20 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.4% | 37.4% |
| TOV% | 10.4% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 82.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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