Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -330 UNM +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -7.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -6.9 (+7.1) | 155.1 (+0.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -6.4 (+7.6) | 153.3 (+2.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -6.4 (+7.6) | 154.7 (+1.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -5.3 (+8.7) | 156.4 (-0.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 17-3 |
| Home | 19-0 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#44) | 9.2 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#60) | 2.41 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#51) | 3.98 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#101) | 0.653 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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