Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | CSUB -110 FRES -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -1.5 (+19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -0.5 (+17.5) | 148.4 (-18.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -0.5 (+17.5) | 148.8 (-18.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -0.2 (+17.8) | 152.0 (-22.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -1.2 (+16.8) | 152.7 (-22.7) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | CSUB 76 – 71 FRES |
| Dec 16, 2023 | FRES 61 – 58 CSUB |
| Dec 21, 2022 | FRES 56 – 48 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-18 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#222) | 6.7 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#193) | 0.32 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#209) | 0.53 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#157) | 0.500 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 44.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.48 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 47.7% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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