Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -500 CSUB +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +3 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -9.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -8.2 (-5.2) | 135.5 (-16.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -6.6 (-3.6) | 138.5 (-19.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -6.8 (-3.8) | 138.4 (-19.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -6.8 (-3.8) | 136.0 (-17.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | CSUB 76 – 71 FRES |
| Nov 17, 2024 | CSUB 74 – 56 FRES |
| Dec 21, 2022 | FRES 56 – 48 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#229) | -7.5 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#250) | -0.96 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#260) | -1.48 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#224) | 0.422 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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