Betting Lines
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -600 CSUB +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +5 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -11.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -8.4 (-13.4) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -8.1 (-13.1) | 139.1 (+7.9) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -7.5 (-12.5) | 140.4 (+6.6) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -8.8 (-13.8) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | CSUB 74 – 56 FRES |
| Dec 16, 2023 | FRES 61 – 58 CSUB |
| Dec 21, 2022 | FRES 56 – 48 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 2-18 |
| Home | 10-7 | 6-11 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#121) | -7.8 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#140) | -1.25 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#84) | -1.79 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#169) | 0.413 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 36.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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