Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | LIN +115 STO -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIN +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | STO -7.4 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -4.4 (+5.4) | 136.4 (+12.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -6.5 (+7.5) | 134.7 (+14.3) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -4.0 (+5.0) | 134.0 (+15.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -2.3 (+3.3) | 135.8 (+13.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIN | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#351) | -6.1 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#349) | -0.20 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.35 (#352) | -0.29 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.271 (#344) | 0.516 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIN | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 21.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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