Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO +300 UTC -385 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +5 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -6.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.9 (-4.1) | 143.8 (+25.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -2.8 (-7.8) | 140.0 (+29.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -3.2 (-8.2) | 139.0 (+30.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.1 (-7.1) | 139.1 (+29.9) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | SEMO 74 – 70 UTC |
| Nov 26, 2023 | UTC 72 – 56 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#274) | -4.3 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#268) | -0.38 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#269) | -0.55 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#248) | 0.524 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 18.1% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 11.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.0% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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