Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -1000 SEMO +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -16.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -11.0 (+5.0) | 143.1 (-15.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -13.0 (+3.0) | 144.3 (-16.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -13.3 (+2.7) | 144.4 (-16.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -12.7 (+3.3) | 146.2 (-18.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | SEMO 74 – 70 UTC |
| Nov 17, 2024 | UTC 87 – 82 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#210) | -11.8 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#107) | -1.01 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#123) | -1.21 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#109) | 0.462 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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