Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | WKU -210 LIP +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -7.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -2.5 (+2.5) | 149.3 (-22.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -3.9 (+1.1) | 148.8 (-21.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -3.7 (+1.3) | 146.0 (-19.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -2.5 (+2.5) | 145.2 (-18.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#229) | -2.2 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#316) | -0.63 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#299) | -0.39 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#256) | 0.399 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.7% | 8.9% |
Game Analysis
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