Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -1800 HARV +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -18.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -16.2 (+5.8) | 140.6 (+13.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -19.7 (+2.3) | 141.3 (+12.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -16.8 (+5.2) | 141.2 (+12.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -16.8 (+5.2) | 141.8 (+12.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#52) | -3.9 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#65) | -0.61 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#69) | -0.89 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.703 (#24) | 0.389 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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