Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -1200 UTM +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -5.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -8.6 (-6.6) | 143.9 (-17.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -9.5 (-7.5) | 141.2 (-15.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -6.7 (-4.7) | 140.4 (-14.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -3.2 (-1.2) | 143.5 (-17.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#151) | 3.8 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#145) | 2.77 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#149) | 4.19 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#265) | 0.810 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 50.5% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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