Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA -480 LR +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +17 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -13.1 (-30.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -6.8 (-23.8) | 146.5 (-1.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -7.8 (-24.8) | 144.4 (+0.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -6.9 (-23.9) | 144.8 (+0.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2023 | LR 93 – 84 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#174) | -4.5 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#236) | -0.95 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#233) | -1.42 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#277) | 0.354 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.8% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.4% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 10.5% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 61.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 38.7% |
Game Analysis
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