What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Jack Stephens Center · December 14, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LR -6.0 Home covered
O/U 158.5 Over
Money LR -285 / UTSA +228
Model Predictions
Spread Total LR win
Actual LR +9 177 Won
Massey LR -8.9 (+0.1)
Massey Totals 173.4 (+3.6)
Bradley-Terry 73%
Weighted B-T 81%
Baseline Plus ML LR -6.3 (+2.7) 162.2 (+14.8) 76%
Baseline ML LR -6.3 (+2.7) 160.3 (+16.7) 76%
Baseline Tuned ML LR -6.1 (+2.9) 159.1 (+17.9) 72%
Efficiency Plus ML LR -5.7 (+3.3) 161.2 (+15.8) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 16, 2024 LR 8164 UTSA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LR UTSA
Overall 21-13 11-21
Conference 14-4 5-13
Home 14-4 7-9
Away 6-6 4-11
Neutral 1-3 0-1
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 77.3 77.1
Avg Pts Against 72.5 81.6
Massey -3.8 (#238) -7.7 (#301)
Bradley-Terry -1.20 (#285) -1.18 (#284)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.42 (#277) -1.69 (#284)
RPI 0.418 (#299) 0.394 (#322)
Shooting & Four Factors LR UTSA
FG% 44.1% 40.8%
3PT% 31.6% 32.7%
REB / G 35.8 41.1
OREB / G 13.2 13.0
AST / TO 1.19 1.16
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.5% 47.4%
TOV% 16.4% 15.8%
ORB% 34.0% 31.3%
FT Rate 26.3% 26.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.9% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 19.8% 13.2%
DRB% 65.1% 66.8%
Opp FT Rate 33.7% 26.1%

Game Analysis

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