Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | LR -285 UTSA +228 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | LR -8.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -6.3 (+2.7) | 162.2 (+14.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -6.3 (+2.7) | 160.3 (+16.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -6.1 (+2.9) | 159.1 (+17.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -5.7 (+3.3) | 161.2 (+15.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | LR 81 – 64 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#238) | -7.7 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#285) | -1.18 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#277) | -1.69 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#299) | 0.394 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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