Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +37 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -20.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -21.3 (+15.7) | 149.3 (-14.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -21.0 (+16.0) | 145.4 (-10.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -18.5 (+18.5) | 145.2 (-10.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -19.5 (+17.5) | 142.6 (-7.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#20) | 0.6 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#140) | -1.62 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#141) | -2.93 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#277) | 0.408 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 59.1% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 45.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 48.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.46 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 66.1% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 9.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.7% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 10.6% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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