You pay for this but they give you that. "Hey Hey, My My" - Neil Young
North Alabama Lions
96 97 OT
FINAL SoCon/ASUN Challenge
Samford Bulldogs
Flowers Hall · November 16, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SAM -1.5 Home covered
O/U 162.5 Over
Money UNA +110 / SAM -130
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNA win
Actual SAM +1 193 Lost
Massey UNA -15.5 (-16.5)
Massey Totals 155.5 (+37.5)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML UNA -17.3 (-18.3) 149.9 (+43.1) 76%
Baseline ML UNA -18.5 (-19.5) 148.6 (+44.4) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML UNA -13.4 (-14.4) 152.7 (+40.3) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNA SAM
Overall 24-11 22-11
Conference 14-4 12-6
Home 16-1 13-3
Away 7-10 9-7
Neutral 1-0 0-1
Last 5 2-0 0-1
Streak L2 L3
Avg Pts For 77.5 81.5
Avg Pts Against 71.0 76.8
Massey 8.9 (#43) 1.8 (#138)
Bradley-Terry 2.67 (#10) -0.72 (#250)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.35 (#6) -0.81 (#230)
RPI 0.833 (#7) 0.250 (#339)
Shooting & Four Factors UNA SAM
FG% 47.7% 37.9%
3PT% 42.1% 28.6%
REB / G 33.5 39.0
OREB / G 9.5 13.0
AST / TO 1.69 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.0% 43.9%
TOV% 11.8% 15.7%
ORB% 27.1% 31.0%
FT Rate 10.9% 42.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.0% 50.8%
Opp TOV% 24.4% 21.5%
DRB% 72.7% 63.4%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 33.8%

Game Analysis

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