Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UNA +110 SAM -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +1 | 193 | Lost |
| Massey | UNA -15.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+37.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -17.3 (-18.3) | 149.9 (+43.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -18.5 (-19.5) | 148.6 (+44.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -13.4 (-14.4) | 152.7 (+40.3) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#43) | 1.8 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#10) | -0.72 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#6) | -0.81 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.833 (#7) | 0.250 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 11.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 10.9% | 42.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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