Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | AF +140 BEL -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +8 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -3.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -7.4 (-0.6) | 132.4 (+17.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -1.6 (-6.4) | 134.5 (+15.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -2.4 (-5.6) | 133.8 (+16.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -4.0 (-4.0) | 124.9 (+25.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 4, 2025 | BEL 79 – 63 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 13-7 |
| Home | 3-13 | 11-5 |
| Away | 0-14 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#341) | 0.8 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#301) | 1.08 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#290) | 1.24 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#162) | 0.651 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 52.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 59.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 6.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 8.0% |
Game Analysis
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