Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -130 TXST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -10.7 (+22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -6.5 (+18.5) | 134.2 (-2.2) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -9.0 (+21.0) | 133.9 (-1.9) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -9.3 (+21.3) | 134.2 (-2.2) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | TXST 63 – 49 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#340) | 8.2 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#313) | 0.38 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#317) | 0.67 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#179) | 0.589 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 14.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 26.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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