Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -900 OHIO +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +24 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -21.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -16.3 (+7.7) | 151.0 (+13.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -16.9 (+7.1) | 152.2 (+11.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -15.1 (+8.9) | 153.2 (+10.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -16.2 (+7.8) | 150.0 (+14.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 11-2 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#48) | -5.2 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#8) | -0.61 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#10) | -0.98 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.875 (#4) | 0.257 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 61.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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