Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +125 ND -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +21 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -3.8 (-24.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -4.6 (-25.6) | 150.8 (-3.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -5.5 (-26.5) | 150.0 (-3.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -3.9 (-24.9) | 149.0 (-2.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -1.7 (-22.7) | 149.7 (-2.7) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | GTWN 72 – 68 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#219) | 2.5 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#82) | 0.83 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#84) | 1.10 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#127) | 0.573 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 45.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 43.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 82.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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