We live on blood / We are Sparta F.C "Theme from Sparta FC" - The Fall
Purcell Pavilion · December 16, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ND -3.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money ND -188 / GTWN +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total ND win
Actual GTWN +4 140 Lost
Massey ND -5.9 (-9.9)
Massey Totals 137.2 (+2.8)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 79%
Baseline Plus ML ND -4.4 (-8.4) 135.7 (+4.3) 66%
Baseline ML ND -4.3 (-8.3) 136.3 (+3.7) 67%
Baseline Tuned ML ND -4.1 (-8.1) 135.7 (+4.3) 66%
Efficiency Plus ML ND -3.4 (-7.4) 136.6 (+3.4) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 16, 2024 ND 8463 GTWN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ND GTWN
Overall 13-20 9-23
Conference 7-13 2-18
Home 9-8 7-12
Away 2-10 2-10
Neutral 2-2 0-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 64.0 70.8
Avg Pts Against 67.2 77.9
Massey -1.1 (#192) -2.2 (#212)
Bradley-Terry -0.15 (#192) -0.86 (#265)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.50 (#212) -0.62 (#224)
RPI 0.510 (#159) 0.422 (#298)
Shooting & Four Factors ND GTWN
FG% 40.9% 44.7%
3PT% 27.7% 36.3%
REB / G 35.7 38.0
OREB / G 9.8 12.8
AST / TO 0.81 1.07
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.3% 52.4%
TOV% 20.3% 19.7%
ORB% 28.1% 36.2%
FT Rate 20.8% 28.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.7% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 17.3%
DRB% 73.7% 68.5%
Opp FT Rate 19.1% 19.7%

Game Analysis

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