Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ND -188 GTWN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -5.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -4.4 (-8.4) | 135.7 (+4.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.3 (-8.3) | 136.3 (+3.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.1 (-8.1) | 135.7 (+4.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -3.4 (-7.4) | 136.6 (+3.4) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | ND 84 – 63 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 2-18 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-12 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#192) | -2.2 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#192) | -0.86 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#212) | -0.62 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#159) | 0.422 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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