Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | USA -230 MER +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USA -18.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -13.8 (-4.8) | 133.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -13.5 (-4.5) | 138.0 (+3.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -11.7 (-2.7) | 138.1 (+2.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2023 | USA 83 – 62 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | -7.9 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#184) | -0.47 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#180) | -0.76 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#163) | 0.542 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 27.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 62.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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