Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | MER -175 USA +148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +21 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -9.5 (-30.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -4.5 (-25.5) | 143.1 (+1.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -5.7 (-26.7) | 143.6 (+1.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -5.2 (-26.2) | 143.1 (+1.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -3.7 (-24.7) | 139.2 (+5.8) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | USA 75 – 66 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#242) | -7.5 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#236) | -0.74 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#275) | -1.10 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#218) | 0.430 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.6% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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