Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -280 ETSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -17.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -13.1 (-7.1) | 152.8 (-6.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -16.5 (-10.5) | 156.1 (-10.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -12.8 (-6.8) | 154.5 (-8.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | ETSU 70 – 68 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#89) | -4.2 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#60) | -2.00 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#70) | -2.84 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#339) | 0.250 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 21.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 53.8% |
| FT Rate | 37.7% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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