Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -30000 BGSU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -19.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -20.2 (-6.2) | 143.2 (+14.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -21.8 (-7.8) | 143.9 (+14.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -18.1 (-4.1) | 143.8 (+14.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#68) | -5.1 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#191) | -2.04 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#188) | -2.97 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#231) | 0.031 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 45.5% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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