Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | IU -350 SC +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | IU -10.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -9.7 (+6.3) | 139.6 (+18.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -10.6 (+5.4) | 138.2 (+19.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -9.3 (+6.7) | 137.9 (+20.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -4.6 (+11.4) | 147.4 (+10.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#54) | 6.0 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#61) | -0.44 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#54) | -0.39 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#88) | 0.372 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.1% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.2% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.4% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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