Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -20000 UML +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +59 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -21.7 (+37.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -22.4 (+36.6) | 155.5 (+11.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -22.9 (+36.1) | 157.8 (+9.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -17.3 (+41.7) | 157.3 (+9.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#16) | -0.4 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#26) | 0.24 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#18) | 0.29 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.932 (#2) | 0.375 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.42 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 50.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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