Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Ford Center · November 16, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread EVAN -3.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money EVAN -190 / RAD +155
Model Predictions
Spread Total EVAN win
Actual RAD +11 173 Lost
Massey EVAN -14.7 (-25.7)
Massey Totals 155.4 (+17.6)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 72%
Baseline Plus ML EVAN -5.9 (-16.9) 148.2 (+24.8) 72%
Baseline ML EVAN -6.7 (-17.7) 146.7 (+26.3) 78%
Baseline Tuned ML EVAN -7.0 (-18.0) 148.7 (+24.3) 75%
Efficiency Plus ML EVAN -4.3 (-15.3) 146.3 (+26.7) 61%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EVAN RAD
Overall 11-21 20-13
Conference 8-12 9-7
Home 7-9 10-3
Away 4-11 7-9
Neutral 0-1 3-1
Last 5 0-2 2-1
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 65.1 71.7
Avg Pts Against 71.4 71.0
Massey -0.3 (#191) -6.7 (#304)
Bradley-Terry -0.33 (#206) 0.43 (#148)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.34 (#201) 0.88 (#130)
RPI 0.562 (#127) 0.576 (#115)
Shooting & Four Factors EVAN RAD
FG% 39.8% 43.9%
3PT% 22.2% 35.3%
REB / G 25.5 38.3
OREB / G 7.0 13.3
AST / TO 0.77 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.4% 50.9%
TOV% 18.6% 16.4%
ORB% 19.4% 35.1%
FT Rate 25.9% 32.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.2% 51.6%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 15.8%
DRB% 56.1% 67.0%
Opp FT Rate 33.6% 33.0%

Game Analysis

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