Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN -190 RAD +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +11 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | EVAN -14.7 (-25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -5.9 (-16.9) | 148.2 (+24.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -6.7 (-17.7) | 146.7 (+26.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -7.0 (-18.0) | 148.7 (+24.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -4.3 (-15.3) | 146.3 (+26.7) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#191) | -6.7 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#206) | 0.43 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#201) | 0.88 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#127) | 0.576 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 25.5 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 56.1% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.6% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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