Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | USD -185 IDST +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +12 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -1.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.5 (-10.5) | 135.6 (+8.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.0 (-12.0) | 132.2 (+11.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -0.6 (-12.6) | 129.5 (+14.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.2 (-11.8) | 130.9 (+13.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | IDST 71 – 68 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-27 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-13 | 10-4 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#295) | 3.4 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#337) | -0.64 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#327) | -0.70 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.277 (#332) | 0.509 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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