Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +110 SPU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -1.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -1.4 (-9.4) | 143.0 (-13.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.9 (-10.9) | 146.0 (-16.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.4 (-9.4) | 142.6 (-12.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.2 (-6.8) | 138.9 (-8.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2023 | SPU 66 – 60 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 8-9 | 6-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#302) | 0.5 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#185) | -1.79 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#196) | -2.20 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#164) | 0.292 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 44.8% |
Game Analysis
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