Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | SPU -285 UMBC +228 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +6 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -15.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -9.9 (-3.9) | 142.8 (-16.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -11.9 (-5.9) | 141.3 (-15.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -11.2 (-5.2) | 143.1 (-17.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -9.9 (-3.9) | 140.1 (-14.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | SPU 69 – 61 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#178) | -11.2 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#176) | -2.45 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#176) | -3.46 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#185) | 0.333 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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