Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -43.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +46 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -45.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -39.4 (+6.6) | 146.8 (-14.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -41.0 (+5.0) | 146.7 (-14.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -27.2 (+18.8) | 144.9 (-12.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -28.7 (+17.3) | 142.7 (-10.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-7 | 2-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 52.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 82.3 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#26) | -26.3 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#190) | -0.70 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#183) | -1.01 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#194) | 0.479 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 32.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 9.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.08 | 0.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 33.3% |
| TOV% | 11.6% | 33.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 11.9% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 58.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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