Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -310 WAKE +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -10.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -7.4 (+7.6) | 148.4 (-13.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -7.8 (+7.2) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -8.0 (+7.0) | 142.9 (-7.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -6.7 (+8.3) | 144.3 (-9.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#115) | 0.7 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#127) | 2.11 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#137) | 2.89 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#244) | 0.598 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.52 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 37.4% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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