I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
Case Gym · November 16, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread BU -4.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money BU -200 / DART +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total BU win
Actual BU +28 128 Won
Massey BU -7.7 (+20.3)
Massey Totals 149.1 (-21.1)
Bradley-Terry 62%
Weighted B-T 71%
Efficiency Plus ML BU -2.8 (+25.2) 138.9 (-10.9) 70%
Baseline Tuned ML BU -3.6 (+24.4) 141.8 (-13.8) 63%
Baseline ML BU -3.8 (+24.2) 142.1 (-14.1) 63%
Baseline Plus ML BU -2.4 (+25.6) 142.4 (-14.4) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 13, 2025 DART 7764 BU
Dec 14, 2023 DART 6354 BU
Dec 14, 2022 BU 6759 DART
Dec 11, 2021 BU 6562 DART

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BU DART
Overall 16-16 14-14
Conference 10-8 8-6
Home 12-4 9-4
Away 3-12 5-9
Neutral 1-0 0-1
Last 5 0-3 1-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 65.6 74.2
Avg Pts Against 68.3 73.5
Massey -9.7 (#330) -9.0 (#326)
Bradley-Terry -2.91 (#355) -1.74 (#326)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.10 (#350) -2.85 (#334)
RPI 0.278 (#329) 0.200 (#355)
Shooting & Four Factors BU DART
FG% 37.9% 44.8%
3PT% 30.8% 26.8%
REB / G 31.3 39.0
OREB / G 11.7 9.5
AST / TO 0.73 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.0% 50.0%
TOV% 24.2% 20.1%
ORB% 31.5% 27.9%
FT Rate 11.8% 46.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.0% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 12.2%
DRB% 67.8% 74.7%
Opp FT Rate 23.5% 15.3%

Game Analysis

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