Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | USF -3000 WGA +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +19 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | USF -10.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -8.2 (+10.8) | 149.1 (-20.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -7.7 (+11.3) | 148.3 (-19.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -6.9 (+12.1) | 145.7 (-16.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -10.4 (+8.6) | 143.6 (-14.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-6 | 4-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L5 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#241) | -5.0 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#196) | -1.22 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#184) | -1.89 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#169) | 0.421 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 60.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.6% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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