Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MD -145 MARQ +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -11.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -6.9 (-10.9) | 144.2 (+7.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -8.2 (-12.2) | 135.7 (+16.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -9.1 (-13.1) | 132.2 (+19.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -6.9 (-10.9) | 139.6 (+12.4) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | MD 89 – 82 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#15) | 10.5 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#14) | 2.17 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.77 (#1) | 3.30 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.727 (#26) | 0.694 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 10.3% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.5% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.7% | 27.3% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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