Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Levien Gymnasium · November 16, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread COLU -13.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money COLU -1800 / MERC +900
Model Predictions
Spread Total COLU win
Actual COLU +14 140 Won
Massey COLU -12.1 (+1.9)
Massey Totals 139.6 (+0.4)
Bradley-Terry 97%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML COLU -9.3 (+4.7) 140.4 (-0.4) 76%
Baseline ML COLU -9.2 (+4.8) 138.2 (+1.8) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML COLU -8.5 (+5.5) 139.3 (+0.7) 80%
Efficiency Plus ML COLU -6.8 (+7.2) 138.4 (+1.6) 73%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings COLU MERC
Overall 12-15 15-16
Conference 1-13 9-7
Home 9-6 11-2
Away 3-9 4-14
Neutral 0-0 0-0
Last 5 4-0 2-1
Streak L7 W2
Avg Pts For 77.1 65.8
Avg Pts Against 80.6 71.8
Massey 4.2 (#98) 0.5 (#166)
Bradley-Terry 2.95 (#5) 1.04 (#94)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.07 (#9) 1.29 (#103)
RPI 0.621 (#83) 0.519 (#171)
Shooting & Four Factors COLU MERC
FG% 46.4% 40.4%
3PT% 34.6% 29.8%
REB / G 35.0 29.3
OREB / G 11.8 11.3
AST / TO 1.49 1.15
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.0% 45.3%
TOV% 15.4% 17.2%
ORB% 34.3% 32.7%
FT Rate 31.2% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.2% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 24.6%
DRB% 68.9% 59.3%
Opp FT Rate 18.4% 34.4%

Game Analysis

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