Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -50000 WOF +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +51 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -25.1 (+25.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -26.7 (+24.3) | 141.3 (-20.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -25.8 (+25.2) | 144.9 (-23.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -20.9 (+30.1) | 142.7 (-21.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -20.4 (+30.6) | 142.2 (-21.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-0 | 7-6 |
| Away | 10-1 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#5) | 1.1 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#98) | -1.52 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#63) | -1.90 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.780 (#16) | 0.161 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 44.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 10.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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