Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -320 VT +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -16.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -9.0 (+13.0) | 146.3 (+3.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -6.8 (+15.2) | 145.7 (+4.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -8.8 (+13.2) | 147.3 (+2.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -10.2 (+11.8) | 145.0 (+5.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2022 | VT 61 – 59 PSU |
| Dec 9, 2020 | PSU 75 – 55 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#4) | 2.6 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#64) | 1.35 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#62) | 1.74 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#66) | 0.625 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 41.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.6% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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