Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +320 UNCW -420 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +4 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -2.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -0.0 (-4.0) | 161.6 (+12.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.1 (-3.9) | 161.7 (+12.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -1.2 (-2.8) | 162.1 (+11.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2025 | UNCW 73 – 60 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 4-10 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-14 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#290) | 0.5 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#244) | 0.85 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#243) | 1.28 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#115) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 90.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.9% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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