Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -1800 UPST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -4.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.1 (+9.9) | 141.6 (-8.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.9 (+10.1) | 141.9 (-8.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -5.5 (+7.5) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | UNCW 89 – 85 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 12-2 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#199) | 2.3 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#258) | 1.17 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#263) | 1.19 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#274) | 0.654 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 9.3% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 65.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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