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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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65–22 on winners spread MAE 10.9 87 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ Purdue +5.6 156.0 70% 78–87 ✓
Nicholls @ Cincinnati +20.3 147.5 97% 49–86 ✓
Elon @ Gardner-Webb +12.5 155.8 87% 79–80 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Old Dominion +3.1 166.3 61% 71–73 ✓
Tulane @ Furman +10.3 148.0 83% 67–75 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charleston +4.9 173.8 67% 116–119 ✓
Belmont @ Air Force -3.5 135.5 38% 79–71 ✓
Lindenwood @ Robert Morris +18.9 151.4 96% 53–67 ✓
Maine @ Quinnipiac +2.4 152.6 58% 55–58 ✓
West Georgia @ South Florida +11.1 151.5 84% 55–74 ✓
Army @ Marist +11.3 150.3 85% 88–91 ✓
New Hampshire @ Brown +20.4 141.6 97% 58–76 ✓
UAB @ High Point +15.6 155.2 92% 65–68 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ South Carolina Upstate +3.1 174.1 61% 89–85 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Princeton +12.6 152.6 87% 73–68 ✗
Fordham @ Manhattan +8.0 140.6 77% 76–78 ✓
Temple @ Boston College -1.5 146.8 44% 69–72 ✗
Vermont @ Iona +9.3 137.5 80% 59–62 ✓
SMU @ Butler +0.1 158.2 50% 70–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Georgia Southern +7.0 153.8 74% 75–80 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Penn State +14.5 147.6 91% 64–86 ✓
American University @ North Carolina +13.8 144.3 90% 55–107 ✓
Marquette @ Maryland +13.6 135.8 89% 78–74 ✗
Ohio @ Memphis +22.2 159.7 98% 70–94 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Northwestern +35.5 152.7 100% 58–67 ✓
Georgia @ Georgia Tech +3.0 165.8 61% 77–69 ✗
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh +14.8 143.0 91% 62–86 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Pennsylvania +6.8 137.7 73% 86–69 ✗
Washington State @ Iowa -2.8 168.6 40% 66–76 ✗
Samford @ North Alabama +16.2 155.5 93% 97–96 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Gonzaga +22.2 166.1 98% 54–113 ✓
Arizona @ Wisconsin -0.6 145.4 48% 88–103 ✗
Ohio State @ Texas A&M +3.2 137.0 62% 64–78 ✓
Duquesne @ DePaul +22.5 150.4 98% 58–84 ✓
Long Island University @ California Baptist +6.7 145.3 73% 77–90 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Oregon State +20.2 134.7 97% 51–70 ✓
Lehigh @ UCLA +21.9 133.1 98% 45–85 ✓
NJIT @ Morgan State +20.2 139.6 97% 69–81 ✓
Presbyterian @ Kennesaw State +9.6 164.0 81% 67–85 ✓
Wofford @ Duke +24.2 147.3 99% 35–86 ✓
Charleston Southern @ VMI +8.9 144.3 79% 69–80 ✓
Lafayette @ Cornell +13.5 152.9 89% 71–81 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Columbia +11.8 139.8 86% 63–77 ✓
Richmond @ Bucknell +23.5 144.8 98% 76–80 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +8.8 99.3 79% 28–54 ✓
Wake Forest @ Xavier +11.1 147.5 84% 60–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Syracuse -1.2 143.6 46% 95–104 ✗
Dartmouth @ Boston University +7.5 149.1 75% 50–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Longwood +5.0 140.5 67% 62–64 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgetown +3.7 158.6 63% 84–63 ✗
Tulsa @ Missouri State +9.5 154.5 81% 106–111 ✓
Radford @ Evansville +14.2 156.2 90% 92–81 ✗
Saint Peter's @ UMBC +2.8 151.5 60% 69–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman +8.8 147.8 79% 62–75 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Western Illinois +11.9 131.2 86% 61–63 ✓
Indiana State @ Ball State +22.2 142.8 98% 94–84 ✗
Stetson @ Oklahoma +22.4 142.3 98% 64–85 ✓
La Salle @ Drexel +7.7 134.7 76% 71–68 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tennessee Tech +1.7 167.0 56% 83–58 ✗
South Carolina @ Indiana +10.5 136.2 83% 71–87 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Arkansas State +13.9 141.8 90% 49–59 ✓
Northwestern State @ Rice +4.5 131.6 66% 75–77 ✓
Jackson State @ Vanderbilt +30.1 149.7 100% 81–94 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Cleveland State +0.2 129.3 51% 63–71 ✓
Idaho State @ San Diego -0.0 126.2 50% 78–66 ✓
Idaho @ BYU +25.0 149.6 99% 71–95 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Canisius -4.0 148.7 36% 76–58 ✓
Texas State @ Abilene Christian -9.3 137.6 20% 60–72 ✗
Colorado State @ Ole Miss +3.4 138.6 62% 69–84 ✓
Mercer @ South Alabama +17.2 140.6 94% 66–75 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee +15.0 144.7 91% 88–67 ✗
Toledo @ Detroit Mercy -6.9 162.7 27% 82–67 ✓
Le Moyne @ St. Bonaventure +29.8 159.0 100% 52–71 ✓
George Mason @ East Carolina +0.6 135.7 52% 77–78 ✓
Little Rock @ UTSA +13.5 150.7 89% 81–64 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Incarnate Word +18.9 166.9 96% 64–92 ✓
Yale @ Minnesota +3.4 140.7 62% 56–59 ✓
New Hampshire @ Sacred Heart +8.2 154.3 77% 63–80 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Davidson +17.7 164.7 95% 70–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Winthrop +6.8 150.3 73% 89–87 ✗
Green Bay @ Providence +10.6 145.4 83% 65–79 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas +45.9 153.0 100% 43–89 ✓
Portland @ Long Beach State +16.1 144.4 93% 63–61 ✗
Oakland @ Kansas +23.9 136.6 99% 57–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Northeastern -3.2 142.0 38% 62–80 ✗
Bowling Green @ Michigan State +20.3 150.0 97% 72–86 ✓
Liberty @ Florida Atlantic +1.5 160.7 55% 74–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.