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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–17 on winners spread MAE 10.1 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas City @ Creighton +23.0 149.4 98% 56–79 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Purdue Fort Wayne +13.9 144.9 90% 74–93 ✓
Bellarmine @ Marshall +11.6 154.2 85% 62–83 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mount St. Mary's +12.0 150.9 86% 58–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ Brown +6.1 142.1 71% 73–65 ✗
Siena @ UAlbany +8.2 151.0 77% 60–70 ✓
Hofstra @ Massachusetts +9.6 152.6 81% 75–71 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ VCU +18.5 135.1 95% 57–83 ✓
North Carolina Central @ William & Mary +5.8 155.3 70% 78–76 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Drake +15.6 134.3 92% 61–63 ✓
James Madison @ Towson +6.4 144.3 72% 63–67 ✓
Norfolk State @ Hampton +2.0 135.7 57% 67–58 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Bradley +11.4 143.0 85% 60–76 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Sacramento State +3.5 131.5 63% 79–69 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Saint Louis +5.5 139.7 69% 71–77 ✓
Omaha @ Southern Utah +4.7 151.2 67% 73–79 ✓
Utah Tech @ Wyoming +10.1 138.6 82% 69–86 ✓
Fresno State @ Cal State Bakersfield -1.4 159.6 45% 56–74 ✗
Seattle U @ UC San Diego +10.6 146.1 83% 84–71 ✗
Santa Clara @ Nevada +16.7 153.0 94% 59–85 ✓
Chicago State @ San Francisco +30.3 152.4 100% 37–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ UC Irvine +26.9 149.3 99% 62–80 ✓
New Mexico @ St. John's +8.3 166.9 77% 71–85 ✓
Georgia Southern @ William & Mary -2.3 171.0 42% 87–102 ✗
Canisius @ Western Michigan +6.0 143.4 71% 69–92 ✓
Stonehill @ Lindenwood -7.5 135.0 25% 74–75 ✗
Campbell @ Navy +6.0 148.8 71% 86–66 ✗
Princeton @ Merrimack +9.6 133.0 81% 68–57 ✗
Nebraska @ Saint Mary's -2.7 145.5 40% 74–77 ✗
Clemson @ Boise State +10.0 149.1 82% 71–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ The Citadel +8.7 142.2 79% 82–73 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Coastal Carolina +10.4 134.7 83% 71–53 ✗
Manhattan @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.3 159.7 58% 82–85 ✓
Coppin State @ Miami +33.8 144.9 100% 63–93 ✓
Harvard @ Colorado +19.9 138.5 96% 66–88 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Winthrop +12.0 146.3 86% 75–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tennessee +21.4 138.2 97% 68–103 ✓
Texas Southern @ Samford +21.3 160.4 97% 82–97 ✓
Chattanooga @ Southeast Missouri State +6.5 139.6 72% 87–82 ✗
Lipscomb @ Western Kentucky +8.3 154.8 77% 61–66 ✓
New Hampshire @ Holy Cross +13.4 148.1 89% 72–74 ✓
Montana State @ Denver +5.6 140.5 69% 78–79 ✓
New Orleans @ Robert Morris +18.4 142.9 95% 62–73 ✓
Utah @ Mississippi State +1.4 169.6 55% 73–78 ✓
Liberty @ Charleston +6.0 156.3 71% 68–47 ✗
UC Davis @ Stanford +17.1 157.7 94% 65–79 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ San José State -19.1 154.7 4% 64–59 ✓
Troy @ Oregon +10.7 143.1 83% 61–82 ✓
Sam Houston @ Lamar +7.5 174.0 75% 85–72 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Brown +10.2 143.0 82% 70–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.